At the National Food Policy Conference in Washington on 15 April 2026, food economist David Ortega warned grocery bills could climb again as energy, shipping and trade risks push costs higher.

Prices slowed, but not reversed Food prices surged in 2022 and the pace of increases eased over the following two years, the US Department of Agriculture data shows. Slower inflation means prices are still rising, just at a lower rate — not that they are falling. David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University, highlighted this distinction at the National Food Policy Conference in Washington, D.C., on 15 April 2026. How energy and shipping feed into the bill Ortega warned that international events can quickly push inflation higher again, singling out the conflict in Iran and potential disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Key transmission channels include: - Fuel and transport: Oil-price spikes raise fuel costs for trucks and ships, lifting shipping and distribution costs within weeks. - Farm inputs: Higher oil often means pricier diesel and fertiliser, increasing farmers' production costs. - Staggered pass-through: Processors and retailers gradually pass added costs to consumers, so the effect accumulates over time. These channels mean events far from farm fields — a shipping chokepoint, a spike in global oil prices, or sudden schedule changes — can nudge grocery prices upward. What uncertainty on trade means Trade policy is another wildcard. Ortega said uncertainty about tariffs, export restrictions and broader trade moves complicates price forecasts: when governments restrict exports or partners change rules, global supplies tighten and markets respond. USDA data illustrates how volatile food-price drivers can be, with sharp swings one year followed by slower growth the next. Policy shocks and geopolitics can flip the script quickly. Impact for households and the economy For consumers, the immediate effect is higher everyday spending on groceries. For policymakers, it's trickier: food is a major component of household budgets, especially for lower-income families. Key points for policymakers and households: - Household impact: Rising food costs squeeze discretionary spending and can disproportionately affect lower-income households. - Inflation measures: Food price jumps boost headline inflation even if core measures look calmer, complicating central bank decisions. - Wage risk: Persistent food inflation can feed into wage demands, creating a feedback loop that policymakers monitor. Ortega did not offer specific policy prescriptions at the conference but noted the unusually rapid pace of increases in 2022 and that subsequent slower growth still left price levels well above pre-2022 levels. Why this matters Higher grocery bills matter because food takes a large share of household spending and sudden price rises lift headline inflation, which complicates decisions for central banks and squeezes household budgets — particularly for lower-income families.

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"It just means that they're not increasing as quickly," Ortega said.

This article was created with AI assistance.