A sustained $100-a-barrel oil price could unlock about 2.1 million barrels per day of additional South American crude by the mid-2030s, Rystad Energy says. Faster offshore projects in Brazil, Guyana and Suriname — plus a potential return of Venezuelan output — are the main drivers, and Rystad estimates the price revision would lift regional government revenues by roughly $43 billion this year versus its January baseline.

Rystad raises the stakes after Strait disruption

Rystad Energy now says a sustained oil price of $100 a barrel could unlock as much as 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of additional crude production across South America by the mid-2030s. The consultancy revised its oil-price outlook sharply for 2026 after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, lifting its forecasted average Brent price from $60 per barrel in January to about $89 today.

Radhika Bansal, Senior Vice President for Oil & Gas Research at Rystad Energy, says the Middle East conflict has not only pushed prices higher but highlighted the concentration of global supply chains around the Strait of Hormuz. She added South America is well placed to supply markets seeking alternatives.

The price revision has immediate fiscal consequences. Rystad estimates government revenues across the region will rise by roughly $43 billion this year compared with its January baseline. State-linked and national oil companies stand to gain too: Petrobras is forecast to see the biggest single earnings lift, with revenues climbing by about $13.1 billion under the current $89-per-barrel scenario versus a $60 baseline.

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Where the barrels could come from

Rystad identifies three offshore hubs as the fastest source of additional supply: Brazil, Guyana and Suriname. Accelerating project schedules in those markets could deliver more than one million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) of extra production over the next decade, the report says.

  • Estimated new greenfield capital expenditure of roughly $33 billion through 2035 would back the expansion.
  • Guyana: ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail development targets up to 300,000 bpd, with early output averaging about 250,000 bpd. Rystad says debottlenecking nearby fields (Errea Wittu, Jaguar and Hammerhead) could release another 80,000–90,000 bpd without major new field starts.
  • Brazil and Suriname: Brazilian offshore basins and Suriname discoveries are central to the upside, particularly if companies bring forward final investment decisions (FIDs).

Rystad stresses the largest additional supply will come from bringing forward FIDs on new projects rather than only expanding existing assets.

Venezuela's return to the market

Venezuela is a key source of potential upside. Rystad's analysis says the country could add as much as 910,000 bpd by 2035 in a $100 oil environment. More than half of that—about 57%—would come from existing fields in Venezuela's East and West provinces, where Rystad estimates medium crude operating costs run as low as $7 to $8 per barrel.

The consultancy notes Venezuela has re-entered the global supply conversation amid recent geopolitical shifts and reduced availability of medium-to-heavy sour crude from the Middle East, prompting renewed commercial interest.

Logistics, capex and timeframes

Rystad cautions that physical bottlenecks—not just geology or politics—will shape how quickly barrels can hit world markets. Limited shipyard capacity for new floating production, storage and offloading units (FPSOs) is a major constraint, and such physical bottlenecks will influence the speed at which additional barrels reach global markets.

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Rystad says Venezuela alone could supply up to 910,000 bpd by 2035, helping drive a regional upside of roughly 2.1 million bpd if oil holds at $100.

This article was created with AI assistance.