Martin Jäger, head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service, told parliamenters on Oct. 5 that an escalating Russian “shadow war” raises a real risk Germany could be drawn into violent conflict, while saying there was no sign of an imminent large-scale Russian attack on NATO territory.
What Germany’s intelligence chief warned
Germany faces a growing risk of being drawn into violent conflict as Moscow steps up covert hostile activity, the head of the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND) told parliament on Oct. 5. Martin Jäger said “the confrontation we are facing with Russia has taken on a new, more dangerous dimension” and described an escalating “shadow war.” He framed his remarks as a risk warning and said there was no indication of an imminent, large-scale Russian attack on NATO territory.
Why Germany is in focus
Jäger told parliament Germany has become a central hub for European military and other support to Ukraine. He said that central role makes Berlin a main target for pressure and hostile action aimed at forcing Germany to reduce its backing for Kyiv.
German investigators and security officials have publicly pointed to Moscow in connection with specific hostile incidents inside Germany. For example, authorities say an explosives-laden drone was used in an attempted attack at Leipzig airport in August; those attributions are the position of German authorities and intelligence officials and have not been independently established.
The reported threat: covert and limited actions
Jäger and other intelligence officials described hostile activity that falls short of open conventional warfare. They listed sabotage, cyber operations, intimidation, threats of nuclear attack and other hybrid measures aimed at disrupting transport, defence and other critical infrastructure.
They also warned of possible “low-intensity military activities, particularly in the Baltic states.” Those would be smaller, targeted moves meant to probe NATO’s response rather than trigger a full-scale alliance war. Sinan Selen, head of Germany’s domestic intelligence service (BfV), said operations now go beyond classic espionage and include sabotage and attempted killings, with defence industry and military infrastructure in the crosshairs. (see the AFP report cited above)
What the warning means, and what remains uncertain
Jäger presented his remarks as an intelligence assessment of growing and more aggressive hostile activity. As an assessment, it highlights risks and possible scenarios without asserting precise probabilities or timetables; it does not establish that a conventional war is imminent.
He also said there was currently no indication of preparations for a large-scale attack on a NATO member. A remark by President Vladimir Putin published after the hearing said Moscow had “no intention of attacking anyone … but if we are subjected to aggression, we will have no choice but to respond.” German officials, by contrast, point to a pattern of hybrid operations they describe as a shadow war.
The government is considering legislation that would give intelligence services broader powers for more active countermeasures if parliament approves the bill. Lawmakers’ decisions on that proposal will shape how Berlin can respond to the risks outlined by its agencies.
What to watch next: whether parliament approves expanded intelligence powers. Watch for any new public attributions by German investigators for incidents such as the Leipzig attempt, and how NATO responds if limited military moves or hybrid attacks occur in the Baltic region.
This article was created with AI assistance.
