At the start of Donald Trump’s second term as US president, Giorgia Meloni was his go-to European ally. Fast forward a year and her close relationship with Trump is fraying — and Italy’s prime minister is making it clear she won’t back every move he makes, especially on Iran.

From Trusted Ally to Political Liability

Back in January 2025, Meloni stood out as the only European leader invited to Trump’s inauguration. At that moment, her status shot up from a fringe player in Italian politics to a key figure on the international stage. Trump described her as "a real live wire" and saw her as someone who could help reshape global politics in line with his vision. Meloni’s enthusiastic embrace of Trump was clear — she praised his leadership and even promised to help "make the West great again."

The political landscape shifted dramatically over the following year. The US-Israeli conflict with Iran became a turning point. Meloni publicly distanced herself from Trump’s hawkish stance, marking a rare moment of disagreement. Her refusal to allow US bombers to refuel at an Italian military base showd her shift away from Trump’s aggressive foreign policy.

Balancing Act in a Shifting Europe

Meloni’s initial plan was to act as a bridge between Trump and European allies. It seemed like a clever move — an attempt to position Italy as a key mediator during turbulent times. But that role has become a headache. The war in Iran caught Italy off guard, and the fallout has been harsh, both politically and economically.

Italy’s public sentiment has turned against the conflict. Polls show a clear majority opposing the war, largely because of the soaring energy prices hitting households and businesses. The backlash also affects Meloni’s image—her support for Trump has become a political burden.

Approval ratings for Trump in Italy dropped from 35% to 19% within a year, a decline that mirrors growing unease over the conflict and its consequences.

Mastheads

With national elections looming next year, Meloni faces tough choices. The recent rejection of a judicial reform referendum she backed was widely seen as a protest vote against her and her close ties with Trump. The younger electorate, in particular, voted heavily against her proposals, signalling a disconnect between Meloni’s politics and the country’s shifting mood.

Economic Ripples and Political Consequences

Italy isn’t just dealing with political headaches. This economic impact of the Iran conflict has been significant. Energy prices have spiked, pushing inflation higher and squeezing Italian households already struggling with the cost of living. Italy, like Australia, depends heavily on energy imports, so these disruptions have a ripple effect far beyond Europe.

For Australia, the instability in energy markets driven by Middle East tensions signals a need for careful navigation. Higher energy costs globally can push up domestic prices, affecting everything from fuel to electricity bills. Australian exporters also face uncertainty, especially in sectors linked to global supply chains disrupted by geopolitical conflicts.

In Italy, economic pressures seem to be pushing Meloni to distance herself from Trump. She needs to reassure voters that she’s putting Italy’s interests first, even if it means stepping back from her once warm relationship with the US president.

What This Means for International Relations

Meloni’s shift highlights a broader trend in Europe: leaders are becoming more cautious about aligning too closely with Trump’s unpredictable policies. The Iranian conflict, in particular, has forced many European countries to reLook at their stance on US-led military actions. Meloni’s position marks a rare but meaningful break from Trump’s approach, signalling that European leaders might pursue a more independent foreign policy.

For the US, losing a European ally like Meloni’s Italy could complicate efforts to build coalitions for its global initiatives. It also suggests that Trump’s influence in Europe may be waning, with leaders less willing to follow his lead without question.

Australia’s own alliance with the US remains strong, but Meloni’s experience is a reminder that global powers’ policies can have unpredictable impacts. Canberra will be watching closely how these dynamics evolve, especially as tensions in the Middle East continue.

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Meloni’s shift away from Trump highlights the limits of alliances based more on personality and ideology than on shared strategy. With elections coming up and economic pressures mounting, Italy’s prime minister is recalibrating her stance — and in doing so, she’s signalling a shift that could affect not just Europe but countries like Australia watching from afar.

This article was created with AI assistance.