Taiwan has passed a new defence spending bill, yet Taipei on Saturday insisted it's "sovereign and independent" after US President Donald Trump warned the island against declaring formal independence. Taiwan’s foreign ministry said Beijing has no right to claim jurisdiction over the island, and pledged to "continue to deepen cooperation with the United States, maintain peace through strength, and ensure that the security and stability of the Taiwan Strait aren't threatened or undermined." The exchange follows Mr Trump’s state visit to Beijing this week, where he told Fox News he didn't want the United States to "travel 9,500 miles to fight a war" over Taiwan and said he had not committed on the island’s future. The immediate unresolved item is whether Mr Trump will approve an announced US arms package for Taiwan.

The read here is simple. Taiwan has doubled down on political independence while preparing for a deeper security partnership with the United States. That stance arrived after a high-stakes state visit to Beijing in which Chinese President Xi Jinping told US President Donald Trump that Taiwan is "the most important issue in China-US relations" and warned that mishandling it could push the two countries into collision or conflict.

What Taipei said and why it matters

Taiwan’s foreign ministry issued a statement on Saturday asserting the island is "a sovereign and independent democratic nation, and isn't subordinate to the People’s Republic of China." The ministry added that Beijing has no right to claim jurisdiction over Taiwan. The statement pledged Taiwan would "continue to deepen cooperation with the United States, maintain peace through strength, and ensure that the security and stability of the Taiwan Strait aren't threatened or undermined."

That is a clear policy posture, not rhetorical flourish. The Presidential Office also put out a separate statement noting "multiple reaffirmations from the US side, including President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, that the consistent US policy and position toward Taiwan remain unchanged." Presidential Office spokeswoman Karen Kuo said Taiwan looks forward to working with the United States under the commitments of the Taiwan Relations Act.

So the short read is this. Taipei is asserting political independence while anchoring its security in the US relationship. The timing matters because Mr Trump publicly signalled restraint on backing a formal independence declaration during his Beijing trip. He told Fox News he didn't want the United States to "travel 9,500 miles to fight a war" over Taiwan, that he wanted tensions to "cool down," and that keeping the situation "the way it is" might be acceptable to China. Mr Trump also recounted that Xi "feels very strongly" about opposing Taiwanese independence and that the Chinese leader warned missteps could lead to collision or conflict.

Mastheads

Security, law and the money involved

Security and arms sales are central to the exchanges. The United States officially adheres to a One China policy and keeps strategic ambiguity about whether US forces would intervene in a cross-strait conflict. At the same time, US law requires Washington to provide Taiwan with arms for its self-defence. Mr Trump told reporters he had not yet decided whether to approve a new arms package that has already been announced by Washington and previously noted by Congress.

He said he had not yet authorised the roughly $11 billion package and that he would "see what happens."

On Taipei’s side, Taiwan’s parliament recently approved a 25 billion US dollar defence spending bill. Lawmakers said that bill will fund procurement of US weapons, including elements of the package announced in December. That's concrete money, and it signals Taiwan’s intent to buy American hardware to deter or delay any coercive moves across the Strait.

Background facts matter here. China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province and has repeatedly said reunification is a core national interest. Xi hasn't ruled out the use of force to bring the island under mainland control. During the state visit Xi raised Taiwan at the opening of his talks with Mr Trump. Taiwan, in contrast, is self-governing, holds democratic elections, and its president, Lai Ching-te, has said he considers the island already independent, an argument Taiwan’s leaders use to say a formal declaration is unnecessary.

My read is this: the political posture from Taipei is designed to balance two aims. One is to assert sovereignty in words that shore up domestic legitimacy. The other is to leave space for Washington to continue supplying military capability without Washington having to change its One China stance. That balancing act is fragile, because President Trump has publicly signalled a low appetite for military entanglement and hasn't yet authorised the announced arms package.

That leaves several policy signals to watch. Will the United States authorise the announced roughly $11 billion package?

How will Beijing respond if key elements of the package are delivered? And how will Taipei calibrate a claim of independence while continuing heavy purchases of US defence equipment?

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The immediate, concrete item to watch is whether Mr Trump approves the announced US arms package for Taiwan; he has said he hasn't yet authorised it and will "see what happens."

This article was created with AI assistance.