Washington has told several European partners that some contracted weapons deliveries are likely to be delayed because the campaign against Iran is drawing down US stockpiles. Five people familiar with the matter said the hold-ups will affect countries in the Baltic region and Scandinavia. Some of the items were bought through the Foreign Military Sales programme but haven't yet been delivered. The delays raise short-term defence and diplomatic questions for NATO partners dependent on US materiel.

What US officials told partners

US officials recently informed a number of European counterparts that previously agreed weapons shipments are likely to be pushed back. Five people familiar with the matter said the messages were delivered bilaterally in the past few days. The identities of the affected countries were not released, though the people said some sit in the Baltic and Scandinavian regions.

Those people said the delayed cargo includes various kinds of ammunition. The munitions named are usable for both offensive and defensive operations. Some of the items were acquired under the Foreign Military Sales programme, which allows foreign governments to buy US-made weapons with Washington’s logistical help and consent.

The White House and State Department directed queries to the Pentagon, which didn't reply to a request for comment, the people said.

Why US stocks are stretched

The recent pushback comes as US supplies are already thinner than before. The US had drawn down large amounts of weapons and ammunition since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s military operations in Gaza in late 2023, the people said.

The campaign against Iran has added fresh pressure.

The article the people described calls the Iran campaign a war that began with US and Israeli air strikes on 28 February. Since then, Tehran has fired hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Gulf states. Most of those incoming missiles and drones have been intercepted. Interceptions have used systems such as the PAC-3 Patriot missile interceptor, which, the people noted, Ukraine relies on to defend energy and military infrastructure from ballistic strikes.

Pressure on procurement and industry

European officials are frustrated. The people said delays put some capitals in a tight spot. Many had planned force modernisations or stock replenishments on the timetable of those US deliveries.

Under former President Donald Trump, Washington urged NATO partners to buy more US-produced materiel, including under the Foreign Military Sales programme. The people said that push has meant Europe now depends in part on US logistics for key systems. But FMS deliveries are often late, the people added, and the recent notices underline that vulnerability.

Mastheads

Some European governments are already exploring arms made within Europe for that reason, the people said. They see locally produced systems as a route to shorter supply lines and fewer diplomatic constraints on transfer timing.

Political and diplomatic friction

US officials say some weapons are needed in the Middle East campaign, the people reported. They also fault some European states for not helping to open the Strait of Hormuz. That diplomatic point has heightened tensions over who shoulders what for regional security.

Delays on weapons deliveries carry political consequences inside allied capitals. Governments that committed to particular force structures now face hard decisions about readiness. Parliaments that approved purchases on a defined timeline must weigh explanations from their defence ministries about why kit will arrive late.

Procurement delays can ripple into defence budgets and industry order books. When deliveries slip, governments may need to keep older systems longer. They might also shift spending between procurement lines to cover shortfalls. The people said some European buyers are already weighing purchases from domestic suppliers to reduce reliance on external timelines.

For defence manufacturers, late US exports can be a double-edged sword. On one hand, slower deliveries give European producers a chance to win replacement business. On the other, global demand for missiles, artillery rounds and interceptors has already tightened supply and pushed up prices, the people said. That combination can mean higher procurement bills for governments and stretched production schedules for companies.

Delays in ammunition and interceptors matter for operational planning. Forces expecting certain stocks by specific dates now have to revise readiness estimates. That includes countries bordering Russia, where the cadence of deliveries can be especially sensitive, the people said.

Where air-defence systems and anti-tank weapons are tied to broader deterrence postures, a delay can force leaders to use alternative measures. That could be slower operational training, altered deployment plans, or temporary reliance on allied stocks. The people said such adjustments are already under discussion in some capitals.

The shift shows how multiple crises strain US logistical depth. Supplies that were already drawn down for Ukraine and Gaza are now being tapped again for the Iran campaign. The people described a pattern of repeated demands on US inventories that leaves less margin for error when new crises erupt.

European dependence on US materiel has been a policy goal for Washington. The people said successive US administrations encouraged NATO partners to buy US weapons, part of a broader strategy to share the burden of conventional defence.

But that strategy also ties European readiness to US stock levels and US foreign-policy choices.

According to the people, some European governments are accelerating talks with domestic industry. Others are re-examining existing contracts with US suppliers to see if terms can be adjusted. At the same time, alliance planning bodies are discussing short-term pooling of available stocks to plug immediate gaps.

Those measures are practical steps. They aim to reduce immediate pressure on front-line units. They may also limit the political costs of delayed deliveries for governments that have to explain readiness shortfalls to voters and parliaments.

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Five people familiar with the matter said the delayed shipments chiefly include various kinds of ammunition, and that some were purchased under the Foreign Military Sales programme but had not yet been delivered.

This article was created with AI assistance.